30% of realtors will be GONE

Thirty percent of the realtor population will be out of business by this time next year. 

If you happen to wander into your office, and there is anybody there (um, this is the problem in the first place), look to your left and look to your right - between the three of you, one of you will be gone. 

Much of my week, every week, is either: a) traveling and speaking to agents; and b) calling broker owners or managing brokers about helping their agents. What is absolutely universal: no one is showing up. In some cases, not even the managers!

This past week I was in the Pacific Northwest, and both events I attended were less than half of the normal attendance.  I am seeing this everywhere I go. I hear it from the managers, I hear it from lenders, and other affiliates. I am not 100% sure what agents are thinking, but here's my hunch:

• If I put my head in the sand...
• If I just hang on until the end of the year...
• And if I am a really, really good person...
• Santa will bring me lots of new clients for Xmas, and next year I will be totally okay! 

  Of course, that's ridiculous! 

  But is it? Maybe agents aren't explicitly saying, "Santa will save me," but is it totally unreasonable to think that many people are simply 'hoping' that next year will be better?

  IT WILL NOT!

  My apologies, correction here: the market will not be any easier or better. I am not going to try and convince you of this fact, however, I implore you to let go of any notion that the "market" dictates your success, and that the conditions will be better (they most likely will not).

  In any event, while we can't say for sure what the market conditions will be like next year, here's what we can say about real estate agents (i.e. you). The agents who are showing up now will have a pretty good shot at having a good Q1 and Q2 next year. Everyone else should start working on their ChatGPT skills to write a new resume.

  "Hey! Steven, why are you being such a _ _ _ _ (jerk?)!"

  Because that's what I am seeing, and let's be honest: half (yes, HALF) of the agent population has only experienced a bull market - maybe the best bull market ever. Money was cheap, prices kept increasing, and buyers and sellers kept transacting - easy peasy. By the way, the other half of the agent population who has been in business for more than 11 years (the median tenure according to NAR) has quite likely forgotten that we used to have to WORK in this business to develop business!

  So...GREAT news for those showing up: you'll still be in business next year!

  This is a very simple business. Talk to people, develop and nurture relationships, and become an expert at what you do (your real estate IQ and your EQ - emotional intelligence). Period. That's it. You don't have to do anything else. 

  However, there are two problems - for you - that get in the way: 1) the timing of when people end up needing us is out of our control, and sometimes there is a longer gap than usual; 2) because of problem #1, agents become impatient, and figure that there must be something else they should be doing to do business - so they don't do what they are supposed to do. Instead, they chase gimmicks. They go after strangers. They buy leads. Whatever. 

  For heaven's sake, stop driving yourself nuts! Just do what you are supposed to do!

  But Steven, that's too hard!

  I know!

  That's why 30% or more of the agent population will be gone next year! 

  Ah, well - I gotta come clean - I made the 30% number up. I didn't research it, I didn't look it up - I simply pulled it out of thin air. However, I think we all could agree that there definitely will be a thinning out of realtors. And, I still think 30% is a good guess! Look, all kidding aside, this is the time to dig in, not check out. I invite you to take on this wild hypothesis that 30% of the realtors will be gone because then it might inspire you to become a little more diligent so that you don't become part of the 30%!